Believing in a Favorable Future May Prevent Positive Action
People tend to believe that others will eventually agree with their point of view or belief eventually, according to findings from a series of studies published in Psychological Science. The research study shows in what the authors call a “belief in a favorable future” illustrates the problem of political polarization today.
“It often seems that partisans believe they are so correct that others will eventually come to see the obviousness of their correctness,” says behavioral scientist Todd Rogers of the Harvard Kennedy School, lead author on the research. He adds “Ironically, our findings indicate that this belief in a favorable future may diminish the likelihood that people will take action to ensure that the favorable future becomes reality.”
Rogers and research colleagues Don A. Moore of the University of California, Berkley and Michael I. Norton of Harvard Business School, examined the prevalence of a belief in a favorable future, and the subsequent consequences.
In one of their studies, the researchers asked participants to report their views on abortion, same-sex marriage, climate change, ideology, party affiliation, President Trump, soda, the National Basketball Association, and phone preferences. The participants were also asked to report how they thought other people’s views on the same topics would change between the present and the future. The result, the researchers reported, that for all nine topics, participants’ own current beliefs were associated with their estimation of how others’ future beliefs will change. For example, “91% of participants who supported easier access
to abortion predicted that more people would support easier access to abortion in the future compared with only 47% of those who supported making access to abortion more difficult.”
The researchers collected data from other countries including China, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The composite data showed that the belief in a favorable future is a cross-cultural phenomenon and not limited to the U.S. They also reported that a biased belief is distinct from optimism and what is known as the false consensus effect. In other words, the researchers concluded, “even when people are given an incentive to make accurate predictions about how people’s beliefs will change between now and the future, they tend to believe others’ attitudes will change over time to fall in line with their own current beliefs.”
The researchers’ data suggest that believing in a favorable future can influence people’s behavior in the present. In another study which involved working with the Democratic Governors Association, Rogers and colleagues sent out two variations of a fundraising email to more than 660,000 supporters.
They found that recipients were less likely to open the email if the subject indicated that a Democrat had the lead in a closely contested race compared with a message that suggested the candidate was trailing in a closely contested race. Of those who opened the email, people were less likely to click the donation link and were less likely to make a donation when the Democrat was portrayed as having the lead compared to when the Democrat was portrayed as being behind.
“The most interesting aspect of this to me is how robust it is,” says Rogers. “This pattern of findings emerges for an unexpectedly diverse range of preferences, views, and beliefs — and it emerges across cultures. People biasedly believe that others will change in ways that align with their current preferences, views, and beliefs.”
According to the researchers, this bias could help to explain a whole host of behavioral phenomena, from staying in a bad job or relationship to underestimating future opposition to a specific political view or a policy initiative.
These studies have relevance for the current political divisions in the U.S. and the anti-vaxx, anti-mask phenomena. Many people are optimistic that they can convince others to abandon their beliefs or perceptions easily if only they could be shown the logic and facts. Research shows that is not likely to happen.
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